I’m on TIME’s 30 under 30 list this year for people who are changing the world. I feel as though I need to do a little “expectations management” here.
Politics. Policy. Polling. Pop Culture.
We researchers and pundits lump 18-year-olds and 29-year-olds into the same bucket when we talk about the “youth vote,” but the truth is that the back end of the “Millennial” generation has little memory of “hope and change” at all.
Influential pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson’s book, about how new ideas and social trends are recasting the political landscape, how both parties must understand and communicate with emerging groups of voters like Millennials, and why they are essential to the future of the GOP, to Adam Bellow at Broadside, for publication in 2015, by The Schisgal Agency (World).
It’s important to keep in mind that a “skewed” poll implies you’ve sampled the wrong people or asked a question in a leading fashion. The public polls that missed just how close Ken Cuccinelli was in the Virginia gubernatorial race did neither of those things. (They also got the other two statewide races pretty much on the money.)
They did, however, misjudge how independent voters might break. I think that the third-party candidate, Libertarian Rob Sarvis, may have had a little something to do with it. My latest post at Huffington Post Pollster is here to explain.
I can’t resist the urge to write, write, write about fresh exit polling data. Today, I’ve got two posts looking at different facets of yesterday’s elections. First, at US News and World Report, I have a post about why Christie’s win (and Cuccinelli’s loss) do tell us about the need to move beyond a base-only strategy for winning elections. Second, at National Review’s “The Corner” blog, I write about why the changes in Virginia’s off-year electorate from 2009 to 2013 seem to indicate the Obama coalition is continuing to vote even when he’s not on the ballot.
I’ve been going on The Kelly File, Fox News’ new primetime show hosted by Megyn Kelly, pretty regularly every Tuesday night over the last few weeks. Last night, we talked about the continuing saga of Obamacare and the administration’s attempts to change the conversation away from the people losing their coverage and - even more troubling - losing their doctors.